The Check-Bluff

Who would have thought that checking can sometimes be the most effective way to bluff? Sounds crazy but it's true. And the scenario it requires isn't really that rare.

Say you've got something like 2-2, and take a flop of Q-6-5 with 3 or 4 opponents. No matter what your position is, you may sense that no one is really enthusiastic about that flop. Maybe no one has a queen. It looks like it will be checked around. You sense a bluffing opportunity, and decide to bet. You get 2 callers.

So far, you're representing a queen, and the two players who called you are calling on the strength of a) a smaller pair that might improve, and b) the possibility that you are full of it. Both possibilities, together, justify a call in their minds. Okay, now of course we'd like to see a deuce on the turn, but what if it's a King? Now the board is Q-6-5-K.

And now here is where (regardless of position) you check. You give a free card. Friends, this is powerful, powerful confirmation to your opponents that you do indeed hold the queen. Remember that for a bluff to be effective, you have to sell the story. The story here is, “I have a queen.” You begin the story by betting the flop, and you confirm the story by being wary of the king on the turn. Checking is just the sort of action the Q-9 holder would take in this case. The Q-9 holder is scared of the King.

If you bet the turn instead, you raise the eyebrows of your opponent who has 6-7 or 9-9. He says to himself: “Why isn't this guy afraid of the King?” The opponent runs through the possibilities: “Does he have Q-K? Maybe a 6-K? But why would he have bet the flop without a queen?” It just doesn't compute. The most likely explanation is that you have nothing and are trying to buy the pot. This emboldens your opponent to see the hand through to the end, because, remember, he was basing his flop call not only on the strength of his middle pair, but on the possibility that you were bluffing. Your bet on the turn would help strengthen the possibility that you may be full of it.

So you check the turn and continue to portray yourself as the guy with the queen. Now, no matter what the river brings, you can bet with confidence, and unless the opponents have a Queen beat, they will fold. And because of how difficult it is to spike two pair, they will be folding a lot. The check on the turn persuaded them that they didn't need to play sheriff on the river. I have won many a pot this way.

There is one other benefit to the check-bluff on the turn, and it's psychological. Many players feel that when you bet on every street, your are in some way challenging their ability to have a good hand. You aren't giving them any credit for even the possibility of having decent cards. This bothers and frustrates them and invites them to call out of stubbornness. When you check the scary card on the turn, not only are you defining your hand very narrowly: “I like the queen but I don't like the king.”, but you are also deferring to your opponents in a way that will satisfy them psychologically. Once the opponent is satisfied that you have acknowledged the potential strength of his hand, he is okay with losing. He doesn't mind folding on the river because in a strange way, his honor has been satisfied.

That's just my armchair philosophy of course, but I'm convinced there's validity there. The bottom line is, sometimes you have to sell the strength of your hand by checking to the big turn card. Most bluffs are meant to convey that the bluffer has something really strong. This bluff however is meant to convey mediocrity, and it's timed with precision at a moment when you believe even a mediocre hand would scare off the competition. If an opponent does hold a monster, your surprise check on the turn will save you a bet. But if the other players have only tiny pairs, or draws, you will convince them that your queen is genuine and will win the pot on the river.