Sunday, March 22, 2009

Betting For Information on the Flop

Here's a common situation. You limp in early position with something like 9-8 suited. Not a bad hand. In fact, it was the hand that beat John Malkovich in Rounders, so hey, it's a pretty good hand! A late position guy, a no nonsense player, raises. You and a few others call.

You see a flop of 9-7-2. Okay. Now here's the problem. Either the raiser had a non-pair hand like A-Q, in which case he will politely pay you off on every street. Or, he beats you with a hand like K-K, and you will lose a bet on every street.

So many players have no idea how to judge this, and simply bite the bullet and resign themselves to seeing a showdown, no matter how expensive. I'm here to tell you that there's a pretty safe way to determine where you're at, and make the correct action. What you need to do is bet the flop and wait to see what the raiser does. If he raises you, he has the big pair. If he calls, you're home free.

Remember, we're talking limit hold'em, for tiny stakes, against a group of anonymous players. Most novice, low limit players are not creative enough to deviate from the script. The script says they should raise with an overpair, and call with two high cards. If the raiser calls you, you may bet the turn and river for value – only perhaps checking if an ace or king comes off and you want to be cautious.

Now consider the scenario where you bet the flop and get raised. Here's what you do. You fold immediately. You need to have the discipline to fold. Don't put in a single additional dollar to chase your 5 outs, which may not even be good if they hit. There seems to be an unwritten rule that if you bet the flop and get raised, you are obligated to call. In some weird way, honor demands that you call one more small bet. But you really don't have to. Be the one guy in the universe who knows how to lay down a beat hand on the flop after testing the waters with a bet.

Most expert poker books would tell you to call the raise, or maybe even play back at the raiser. Why? Partly it's the philosophy of aggression aggression aggression. But mainly its because you don't want to get the reputation of the guy who can get scared off his hand. If you constantly bet the flop for information, get raised, and then chicken out and fold, it will only be a short time before everyone is raising your flop bets because they know your MO.

This is why I play anonymously. Every time I sit down to play, it's against 9 entirely new faces – people who don't know me from Adam. If I do see familiar faces, I know I've lingered too long in one casino. Don't stick around long enough for people to get a good idea of what you're doing. My bizarre looking plays and fake tells and Hollywood acting only work because I have a fresh audience each time. Folding on the flop after a bet is definitely a play your opponents can exploit in the long run, which is why you shouldn't give them a long run.

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